In Case You Missed It October

By Mike Walter, VP Strategic ServicesWednesday, Oct 31, 2012 5:50 PM EST

Zenith Re-Forecast Spending

Inside Radio 10-2-12

Auto is driving radio’s current gains but retail will be difference-maker in years ahead. ZenithOptimedia is make a tiny adjustment to its radio forecast for 2012 as it predicts “slight increases” in the next two years. While auto may be driving the current year’s gains, Zenith forecasters predict a “resurgence” in retail advertising that will make the difference in 2013 and 2014. “Radio continues to be the choice medium of retailers, seasonal products and automotive, providing heavy frequency and drive to retail messages,” the ad giant says. Zenith estimates radio revenue will grow 2% in 2012, off one-tenth of a percent from a forecast released earlier this year...“While we are past the worst of the economic downturn, economic growth remains slow,” Zenith says. It’s making some adjustments from its June forecast that offer a mixed view of the future. Zenith now projects total U.S. ad spending will grow 4.3% in 2012, up from a forecasted 3.6% increase with $1.1 billion more ad dollars being spent than earlier thought. “I don’t think we’ve ever seen this level of downgrading and upgrading which comes back to the diversity of where we see the recovery coming,” Zenith CEO Tim Jones said. He told an Advertising Week panel in New York yesterday that political and Olympic-related ad spending are the primary reasons for the increase. Not surprisingly Zenith projects internet spending will growth the most (+18%) followed by political ad-filled local TV (+12%). It expects newspapers (-8%) and magazines (-3%) to have a down year. Zenith also forecasts slightly smaller gains for total U.S. advertising spending in 2013 and 2014 compared to a rosier outlook released earlier this year.



Study: The Ad-Supported Internet Added $530 Billion to U.S. Economy in 2011 - 3.7% of GDP

AdAge 10-1-12 by Jason Del Rey

The ad-supported internet and the ecosystem that supports it contributed $530 billion to the U.S. economy in 2011, according to a study by Harvard Business School researchers that was commissioned by the Interactive Advertising Bureau. This total would account for 3.7% of the country's GDP, up from 2.1% in 2007.

The study found that this ecosystem directly employed about 2 million people last year, up from about 1 million in 2007. The study also found that the ecosystem is also "indirectly" responsible for another 3.1 million jobs at companies that service the businesses at the core.



SMBs Pour Money into Mobile: Half of SMBs likely to incorporate mobile into ad and marketing campaigns within a year

eMarketer 10-3-12

The poll found that 72% of SMBs planned to increase or maintain mobile spending over the next 12 months.

Those that planned to bump their spending on mobile media within the year were not shy about pouring dollars into the effort. In fact, 42% of those planning a budget hike foresaw an increase of 11% to 20%. One-fifth of those increasing their mobile budgets expected them to climb by 21% to 30%, and one in 10 expected spending to spike by more than 50%. This willingness to spend indicates that mobile budgets are still playing catch-up with the lightning-fast adoption of smartphones by consumers.

SMBs also saw potential in mobile to attract new customers, and remind existing ones of their goods and services. Almost half of respondents said it was at least somewhat likely that they would incorporate mobile elements into ad or marketing campaigns over the next 12 months to hit their target audience. Still, there was a sizeable group that had taken a “wait-and-see” approach to mobile—38% admitted it was not very likely or completely unlikely that they would fold mobile into the mix within the next year.



Mobile Music-Listening Audience on the Uptick

MarketchingCharts 10-3-12 by MarketingCharts Staff

During the 3-month average ending in August, comScore reports that almost 3 in 10 mobile phone owners listened to music on their devices, up about 5% from the previous 3-month period. While that’s not a huge jump, it’s the continuation of a gradual trend that has seen a more than one-third increase in the mobile audience listening to music since the same period last year. This increase is having an effect on music sales. As Nielsen points out in an October blog post, the proliferation of mobile devices – and their presence in everyday life – has been a key contributor to growth in digital music, with digital album sales increasing 15% year-over-year through August, on pace to surpass last year’s peak of 1.3 billion digital track sales. That’s good news for the industry, given an expected 9% decrease in physical music sales this year.

The mobile audience is becoming increasingly engaged in other activities on their devices, too, according to the comScore data. 34% played games during the 3-month average ending in August, up slightly from 33.5% the previous period, while mobile social networking (38.3% v. 36.7%), browser use (52% vs. 49.8%), and use of downloaded applications (53.4% vs. 51.1%) saw more rapid growth.

Texting remained the most popular measured activity, done by 75.6% of the mobile audience, up from 74.8%.

1 in 3 US Smartphones Now An iPhone



Ad Support Is the Future for Mobile Music

eMarketer 10-4-12

Advertising revenues, which already make up the bulk of US mobile music revenues, will gain an even greater share in the coming years, eMarketer forecasts, and by 2016 will account for more than 86% of all such revenues.

This year, the figure is closer to 69%—still a solid majority, and far ahead of the 17.2% of revenues brought in by subscriptions to services like Pandora or the 14.1% of revenues from per-download fees. Mobile music revenues in the US, including revenues generated from downloads or streams direct to mobile devices and excluding multiplatform services or sideloaded music, will total $429.3 million this year. By 2016, they will reach $1.68 billion.



2012 Forecast: U.S. Mobile Ad Spend No. 1 Worldwide

MediaPost 10-10-12 by Gavin O'Malley

According to eMarketer, however, stateside spending on mobile Internet advertising will top all other countries in the world for the first time this year.

As such, eMarketer estimates that spending on mobile Internet ads in Japan will grow 27% to $1.7 billion in 2012 versus 35% growth in 2011.

Mobile Internet advertising spending in the U.S. is expected to grow nearly 97% to $2.3 billion in 2012 -- up from $1.16 billion last year.

Worldwide, mobile ad spending should hit $6.4 billion this year, according to eMarketer.



Billboard Shakes Up Genre Charts With New Methodology

Billboard 10-11-12 by Billboard Staff

Billboard today unveils new methodology for the long-standing Hot Country Songs, Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs and Hot Latin Songs charts. Each receive a major consumer-influenced face-lift, as digital download sales (tracked by Nielsen SoundScan) and streaming data (tracked by Nielsen BDS from such services as Spotify, Muve, Slacker, Rhapsody, Rdio and Xbox Music, among others) will now be factored into the 50-position rankings, along with existing radio airplay data monitored by Nielsen BDS. The makeovers will enable these charts to match the methodology applied to Billboard's signature all-genre songs ranking, the Billboard Hot 100.

Concurrently, Hot Rock Songs, which launched as an airplay-only chart in 2009, and Rap Songs, in existence as a radio survey since 1989, will also include digital download sales and streaming data for the first time.
   
"The way people consume music continues to evolve and as a result so do our genre charts, which now track the many new ways fans experience, listen to and buy music," says Silvio Pietroluongo, Billboard Director of Charts. "We're proud to be offering updated genre charts that better reflect the current music landscape as well as a new R&B Songs chart that finally shines a spotlight solely on core R&B acts like Frank Ocean, John Legend and Anthony Hamilton."



Consumers Spend More Time with Mobile as Online Growth Slows

eMarketer 10-23-12

The shift to mobile is on. According to eMarketer estimates, time spent using mobile devices for activities such as internet and app use, gaming, music and others has more than doubled in the past two years.

This year, the amount of time US consumers spent using mobile devices—excluding talk time—will grow 51.9% to an average 82 minutes per day, up from just 34 minutes in 2010, eMarketer estimates.

While mobile advertising is expected to grow rapidly in the next few years—eMarketer estimates that overall US mobile advertising spending will reach $2.61 billion this year before rising to nearly $12 billion in 2016—there are some significant barriers that both marketers and ad publishers will have to overcome before mobile ad spending will achieve parity with the share of time spent by consumers on mobile devices.



With Streaming and Sharing, Teens Find Ways Around Paying for Music

eMarketer 10-30-12

According to StageofLife.com, in August, 49% of teens and college-age consumers reported spending zero dollars per month on music. Rather than buying iTunes singles or CDs of even their favorite artists, this age group copies music from friends, downloads free songs from music websites and streams music online.

The 16-to-20-year-old age group streams the most music content, according to EMI Insight. Almost half of that US demographic streamed music in 2011. The second-highest demographic concentration of streamers was the 21-to-24 age group, with 46% penetration.

While streaming is especially popular with younger consumers, downloading music through services like iTunes is still a prominent way to listen to music, according to research by AYTM. AYTM’s survey indicated that 37% of US internet users used free music streaming services like Pandora in October. Moreover, 32% paid to download music through a music service like iTunes. Only about 9% paid for a music streaming service like Spotify on a subscription basis that month.